Retailing - Edinburgh, Lothians and Scotland

Retailing in Edinburgh, the Lothians and Scotland.

Edinburgh	sources /notes	2001	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Retail rentals
Edinburgh City Centre	*(1)** Colliers CRE In-town Retail Rentals series (usually published July).	£225	£210	£215	£215	£220	£220
.. relative to average for major UK	*(2)** Based on Colliers CRE data (see *1 above). Comparison with other UK regional cities is based on a peer group of 12 selected cities. Denominator is the unweighted average prime zone A rental for Edinburgh, Glasgow, Newcastle, Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds, Birmingham, Nottingham, Cambridge, Norwich, Bristol & Cardiff, as published by Colliers CRE.	0.9	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.8
regional city centres
Shopping centre investment yields	*(3)** Valuation Office Property Market Report (January edition from 2004 onwards, previously Spring edition). http://www.voa.gov.uk/publications/index.htm Published by the Valuation Office Agency, an Executive Agency of the Inland Revenue. Information is provided by District Valuers. Investment yield is one of several indicators referred to in government guidelines as a tool for monitoring the vitality of shopping centres. It is essentially the ratio of annual rental income to capital value (or sale price) of a property. The level of yield broadly represents the market"s evaluation of the risk and return attached to the income stream from shop rents. In general, low yields indicate that a town is considered to be attractive, and as a result be more likely to attract investment than a town with high yields. In a thriving centre, low yields reflect the expectation that there will be considerable potential for rental growth in future. The VOA is publishing limited PMRs in 2009 as it is reviewing the fitness of the report.
.. Princes Street		5%	5.3%	4.8%	4.7%	4.5%	5.3%
.. Gyle		5.5%	5.5%	5.5%	5.5%	4.5%	5.5%
.. Cameron Toll		6.8%	6.5%	6.5%	6.3%	5.3%	5.8%
City centre yield relative to average	*(4)** Based on yields published in the Valuation Office Property Market Report (January edition from 2004 onwards, previously Spring edition). 12 comparator cities are the same as those used for benchmarking rentals - see note (*2) above. Denominator is the straight average for these 12 cities, with no weighting for size.	1	1	0.9	1	1	1.1
for major UK regional city centres
Edinburgh"s ranking as a shopping centre :
(1) In-town retail rentals (Colliers ..)	*(5)** Colliers Conrad Ritblat Erdman : "In-Town Retail Rents" (usually published July). Ranking for Edinburgh City Centre out of over 340 shopping locations in the U.K., excluding Central and Outer London. Includes regional shopping malls. Based on zone A rentals in the prime pitch, ignoring special incentives such as capital contributions and longer than usual rent free periods. Centres with the same rental as Edinburgh are ranked equally. Since 2001 Edinburgh has been "overtaken" by : Bath, Braehead, Bristol, Cambridge, Canterbury, Cardiff, Cribbs Causeway, Exeter, Guildford, Merry Hill, Milton Keynes, Nottingham, Reading, Sheffield, Southampton and White Rose.	14	27	27	28	28	30
(2) Retail range & quality (Experian/Goad)	*(6)** Experian Goad : "Retail Centre Ranking" (usually published February to April) http://strategies.experian.co.uk/News.aspx Ranking for Edinburgh City Centre out of the top 250 retail locations throughout the U.K. Based on a "vitality" score which takes account of : (i) the number of multiple retailer outlets (40% weighting); (ii) the number of service & miscellaneous outlets (10% weighting); (iii) the number of comparison retailer outlets (10% weighting); (iv) floorspace of multiple retailer outlets ((10% weighting); (v) floorspace of retail outlets (10% weighting); (vi) floorspace of vacant outlets (10% weighting); (vii) number of key retail attractors (10% weighting). Derived through physical surveys of 1,100 separate shopping locations. Most of the survey work is undertaken about two years prior to the survey release date (e.g. in 2000 for the 2002 results), so it must be recognised that very recent changes will not always be reflected in the rankings. Produced in collaboration with the British Council of Shopping Centres. Originated in 1997. For the purposes of the ranking, multiple retailers are defined as having a store network of 9 or more outlets. Service and miscellaneous outlets (e.g. churches & offices), as well as vacant units, have a negative effect on the vitality index. Comparison retailers are as defined by Experian Goad"s own classification. Floorspace is the "footprint" floorspace as measured from Goad Plans (n.b. this doesn"t take account of multiple floor retailing).	12	16	n/a	n/a	7	8
(3) Retail hierarchy (Mgt. Horizons)	*(7)** Management Horizons Europe : MHE U.K. Shopping Index : http://www.mheurope.com/english/whats_new/wn_recent_pub.html Published every 2/3 years. 2001 figures are from the 2000 / 2001 index published in December 2000. 2003 figures are from the 2003-04 edition published in July 2003. 2005 edition due in 2006. The MHE system scores 1,672 shopping "venues" throughout the U.K. based on the number and quality of outlets occupied by multiple retailers. Different retailers are weighted to reflect their importance as generators of retail traffic : premier department stores (e.g. Harrods, Selfridges) are given a score of 15; major department stores (e.g. Harvey Nichols, John Lewis) 10; premier variety stores (e.g. Marks & Spencer) 8; hypermarkets (e.g. Asda Walmart Supercentre, Tesco Extra) 8; supermarkets (e.g. Asda, Sainsbury, Tesco) 5; variety stores (e.g. BHS, Boots) 4; local anchors (e.g. Argos, Woolworths) 3; destination specialities (e.g. Dixons, Homebase) 2; clothing destinations (e.g. Gap, Next)) 2; leisure destination (e.g. HMV, Waterstones) 2; other multiple retailers (e.g. Monsoon, Top Shop) 1. In 2003 Edinburgh achieved a total score of 339 compared with Glasgow 502, Manchester 354, Leeds 334, Nottingham 334, Birmingham 307, Brighton 297, Norwich 294, Oxford Street 286, Leicester 284, and Reading 272. (London"s West End, with a score of 736, far exceeds any other centre and is excluded from the rankings). The completion of Birmingham"s "Bullring" scheme in September 2003 is expected to push Birmingham up to 2nd place in the rankings (behind Glasgow). This would put Edinburgh in 4th position. Fort Kinnaird, in the south east of Edinburgh, is ranked by far the most important retail park in the country, with a score of 74 (cf. 56 for Lakeside Retail Park in Grays, and 51 for Fosse Park in Leicester). Only available to subscribers from 2004 onwards.	6
(4) Retailer requirements (Focus)	*(8)** Focus (Property Intelligence plc) : "Focus on Retail Demand" : http://www.focusnet.co.uk > Market Reports Ranking for Edinburgh City Centre out of the 50 "most sought-after retail locations", excluding Greater London. Based on retailers" demand for space in different centres (n.b. based on total floorspace requirement rather than the number of requirements). Relates to in-town demand only. Demand includes all retailer requirements for A1, A2 and A3 uses for a specific town, with the exception of retail warehouses, superstores and public houses. Space requirements are taken as the mid-point between any maximum and minimum areas stipulated. Generally published June.	12	7	9	14	25
(5) Retail prospects (Bus. Strat.)	*(9)** Experian Ltd. (formerly Business Strategies Ltd.), in association with Churston Heard : "Retail Prospects Index" : www.business-strategies.co.uk Ranking for Princes Street out of 650 retail locations across the U.K. Emphasis on future growth prospects. Based on rental value & trends, retailer requirements, spending by residents / workers, spending per capita, and local employment forecasts. Usually published July. No longer published.	21
(6) Retailer assessment (Ger. Eve)	*(10)** Gerald Eve & Co. Chartered Surveyors ( http://www.geraldeve.com ) in 2003 carried out of a survey of more than 1,500 retail managers throughout the UK, asking them to rank the performance of their various stores on the basis of accessibility, parking, security, environment, trading performance, attitudes to new retail development, and the strength of local competing centres. These responses were then factored alongside more traditional property data, including vacancy rates and rents, to produce a retail hierarchy for the UK, excluding London. Glasgow topped the list, followed by Birmingham, Manchester, Newcastle, Nottingham, Leeds, Edinburgh, Cardiff, Southampton and Liverpool. Aberdeen ranked 13th. Prospects for future growth were seen as being greatest in Birmingham, Manchester, Southampton, Norwich, Liverpool, Reading, Croydon, Leeds, Brighton and Newcastle. One common theme to emerge from the research was an increasing awareness of contrasts between the poor retailing environment in many city centre locations and the managed environment of shopping centres and retail parks. Gerald Eve contact is Michael Moran, Research Dept., 7 Vere Street, London W1G 0JB, tel. 0207 - 493 - 3338. No longer published.		9
(7) Retail market potential (CACI)	*(11)** CACI "Retail Footprint" ranks the country"s shopping centres based on their market size for non-food spending, which in turn is derived from an extensive database of credit card transactions. California Analysis Co. Inc. (CACI) : http://www.caci.co.uk In 2004 London"s West End topped the chart, followed by Glasgow, Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds, Nottingham, Bluewater, Newcastle-on-Tyne, Liverpool, Bristol and the Trafford Centre. Glasgow dominates in Scotland, with a turnover potential of £2,360M. The corresponding figure for Edinburgh is £872M, Aberdeen £765M, and Dundee £357M. Fort Kinnaird is ranked as Scotland"s 6th largest centre while the Gyle is ranked 9th.		25	26	25	24	19	18
(8) Retail fashionability (Javelin)	*(12)** Venuescore ranking, produced by retail specialist consultants, Javelin Group. Scoring takes into account scale, market positioning, and (unusually) an estimate of "fashionability". Edinburgh"s high fashionability boosts its overall ranking. The centres ranked above Edinburgh in 2009 were London"s West End, Glasgow, Manchester and Birmingham. Edinburgh"s Fort Kinnaird was listed as the top retail park in the UK based on the same criteria. Web site : http://www.javelingroup.com Summary report available under : >What we do >Shopping centre locations and retail strategy. N.B.:		5	7	3	4	4	4
Retailer requirements (in-town)	*(13)** Focus (Property Intelligence plc) : "Focus on Retail Demand" : http://www.focusnet.co.uk > Market Reports. Based on formal notification of retailers" demand for space in different centres. Relates to in-town demand only. Demand includes all retailer requirements for A1, A2 and A3 uses for a specific town, with the exception of retail warehouses, superstores and public houses. Space requirements are taken as the mid-point between any maximum and minimum areas stipulated. Generally published July.
Number of retailers looking for site		107	108	117	117	117
Total floorspace requirement		54,909	67,722	68,407	106,536	78,589
Development pipeline
Major new applications (floorspace)	*(14)** Scottish Executive Retail Development Survey : http://www.scotland.gov.uk/planning/ Inaugurated 1998. Generally published August, 2 years in arrears. See Table 3 : Retail Floorspace by Planning Stage.	34,900	60,000	58,700	61,400
Major consents (floorspace)	*(14)** Scottish Executive Retail Development Survey : http://www.scotland.gov.uk/planning/ Inaugurated 1998. Generally published August, 2 years in arrears. See Table 3 : Retail Floorspace by Planning Stage.	24,100	35,600	3,400	30,400
New space open for trading	*(15)** City of Edinburgh Council, City Development Department. Includes supermarkets, retail warehouses and other significant developments. Includes openings at Straiton just outside the city boundary.	34,300	8,600	9,500	6,300	30,400

All area values are in square metres (sqm).

Compiled by the Planning Information team of the City of Edinburgh Council. For further information, or for any clarifications, please contact +44 (0)131 469 3597.


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Retailing - Edinburgh, Lothians and Scotland

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